![]() ![]() Interdependence as a mechanism to avoid war has failed in Ukraine. defence guarantees imply war with mainland China. Taiwan's declaration of independence or the granting of U.S. The events of the last 12 months and their evolution can be interpreted by the Chinese Communist Party as an attempt to revise the One China doctrine. Precisely their scarcity increases their value, even if our relationship with certainties is uneasy. ![]() International players have very few certainties at their disposal. The dynamics of competition between the major powers are volatile and ambiguous. ![]() The sense of urgency is felt on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, generating a dangerous current of pressing mistrust. The accumulated tensions raise the risk that Beijing may attempt to blockade or invade Taiwan in the near future. However, to think that war can be avoided is to consider war as a possibility. Future supremacy will not necessarily be elucidated in a naval air battle in the South China Sea or in the Taiwan Strait. The world's interdependence with the PRCh allows the battlefield to expand so far that decisive battles are no longer necessary. Contrary to what is generally expected, increased interrelations with People's China have brought about the era of non-peace. Interdependence has not promoted democratization in China (PRC), modulated its revisionism, or reduced the potential for conflict in its environment. This document is a copy of the original published by the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies at the following link. ![]()
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